ESPN has released its initial 2026 NFL playoff projections, and the first full field of the season comes with a few head-turners. The model, which factors in roster changes, strength of schedule, and recent performance trends, sees a familiar contender sitting outside the bracket when January rolls around.
The biggest surprise? The projection leaves the Dallas Cowboys out of the postseason entirely, citing a brutal second-half schedule and unresolved questions at quarterback. Meanwhile, two teams that missed the cut last year — the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers — are predicted to bounce back and claim wild-card spots.
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In the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams are projected to win the division, but not without a fight. ESPN's model has the San Francisco 49ers finishing just one game behind, setting up a Week 18 showdown that could decide the title. The Rams, who added depth at wide receiver in the draft, are also listed as one of the top two favorites to reach the Super Bowl from the NFC.
The AFC picture is where things get interesting. The model gives the Buffalo Bills the top seed and predicts Josh Allen will finally break through to the Super Bowl — a pick that stands in contrast to several other outlets that favor the Kansas City Chiefs. The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins also land in the projected field, with the model warning that the AFC's middle tier is tighter than it has been in years.
New York Giants fans might want to look away: the model has them picking in the top 10 of the 2027 draft, citing a lack of playmakers on offense. The Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans round out the projected bottom three.
What the model doesn't answer is the single move between now and Week 1 that could reset everything. A major injury, a surprise trade, or a quarterback competition going the wrong way would reshuffle the entire board. That's what makes the season impossible to predict — even when the spreadsheet says otherwise.
